This Sunday night I thought we’d try something a little different here at the Yinzer Analyst; more charts, less chit-chat. Maybe it’s the season affective disorder or maybe the death of one of my childhood idols but let’s be honest, if you’re reading this it’s either really late and you have a bed to get to or very early and you need to start planning your trades for the day. We’ll save the deep posts for when you need them, but think of Sunday Night Chartology like Headline News with Robin Meade. A mile wide and six inches deep. All we need is a beautiful newsreader for the podcasts…any volunteers?
First up, let’s look at the broader market using SPY for the S&P 500:
SPY has broken out of the consolidation patter and even fought its way back into ascending wedge pattern but ran out of steam soon after. Momentum has turned and Friday’s close at the low sent the CMF score lower.
On a weekly basis SPY is still stuck in another ascending wedge pattern while momentum hasn’t confirmed a breakout strong enough to make me change my opinion on the strength of this market. I wrote on Saturday that momentum has been slowly weakening since the great Tapering Announcement in December of 2013 and until something changes to add new life to this market, new highs might continue to be seen but the action will be more volatile.
What about domestics bonds? Our last post was bond heavy so tonight we’ll just keep it brief with a chart of TLT:
While last week’s rally was enough to give some traders hope that a decent bottom was forming, I think it’s still too soon to get the “Mission Accomplished” banners ready. The strong January rally had legs all along the $132-$136 range, offering plenty of opportunities for any rally to stall out.
And since it’s hard to separate bonds and the dollar in any discussion of the market this year, let’s move on to Uncle Buck (here using UUP):
On a short-term basis, UUP looks to be almost at the end of it’s consolidation patter and offering the possibility of another move higher this week, but moving to a long-term basis we see a different picture:
Last week’s rally brought us right back to the old high and has me wondering how much more room is there to run for UUP.
And what kind of dollar conversation can you have without talking about gold and commodities? Start with the MarketVectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX):
On a daily basis GDX found support along the 50 day moving average and close to prior support at $20, but will overhead resistance and the 200 day moving average keep GDX from running higher? The weekly charts aren’t much more promising:
Using DBC for our broad commodities benchmark, you can see on the weekly chart that the fund is fighting hard to get back into the downtrend channel that kept it bound for much of 2014. Will a rising dollar sent it back to the recent lows?
It certainly hasn’t helped the recovery in the energy complex:
Or those countries heavily reliant on commodities for their financial well-being like Argentina:
And finally, my two favorite charts showing the continued breakout of European equities versus the S&P 500:
EZU has outperformed SPY by nearly 500 basis points this year and while the weekly charts show that the breakout could be in it’s early stages, the short-term daily charts makes it look like we could be entering a consolidation period for EZU relative to SPY. You might see the fund lose ground against domestic equities, especially if UUP continues to gain ground against FXE.
See, we’re keeping it brief tonight here at the Yinzer Analyst. Good hunting out there tomorrow people!